Sorting Out the Mess that is the Euro*
The symbol of the Euro in front of the European Central Bank
in Frankfurt. Photo: Wettach/Wikipedia
Will this new “pact” be any more successful in limiting over spending than the existing treaty that has been ignored since its inception? One would need to see the details but I suspect that it is simply political window dressing. Any law is only as good as its enforcement.
What are the EU leaders doing about tackling the EU’s most fundamental and pressing problem: insufficient economic activity? If that problem can be solved then government deficits will slowly be eliminated. I haven’t seen any evidence that the leaders even understand what are the causes of the lack of economic activity and unemployment. These problems are common to just about every country on the planet and no governments know how to overcome them.
Economists are of no help. They are divided into two camps: the Keynesians and the others and each side proposes simplistic solutions (that they probably themselves do not believe) but devote most of their efforts in criticising the other side. I have not seen any creative or original thinking or solutions. And unemployment keeps on growing.
Forty years ago unemployment in Australia was less than 1% and one was classified as unemployed if one did not work more than 20 hours per week. Now it is more than 5% but one is classified as employed if one worked 1 hour in the week in question. (Australia’s economy is one of the best in the world.) In Europe and the Us the situation is much worse.
The EU pact announced Monday is a knee-jerk reaction to the markets and will probably make things worse, as many commentators have pointed out. So it will not satisfy the markets, so it will solve nothing. And youth unemployment in Spain will exceed 50% before long.
Read the article REUTERS/Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact
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The comments are amusing to read, but totally not applicable. I think that most commenters never been in Europe, or perhaps on a holiday. It took the US 88 years before the country was united, a civil war was needed for that. Also in the US weaker and stronger states, financially, exists and the weaker states are not forced to leave. In Northern Europe we know that some countries have a different financial behaviour and those differences are not solved during the initial launche of the euro. The mood was too optimistic. Now that the disadvantages are very prominent, solutions are and will be implemented, but on a slow pace. Forcing big steps to a solutions will result in a nationalistic (or brittanesque) mood in the seperate states. The 25 countries of the EU who agreed to form an united financial bloc are not in shambles, although inhabitants of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland have met the bottom of their wallets. But in Europe you don't find broken cities (like Detroit) or tent-cities. So remember that if you point one finger to Europe, for blaming and shaming, also three fingers point to yourself.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
European Leaders Agree to New Budget Discipline Measures
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Germany did not "loan' money to Greece. The majority of Greek borrowing is from other EU banks. Moreover, Greece borrowed the money by cooking it's books. Greece is a serial offender at manipulating it's Government statistics to hide the fact that it was not able to pay for what it borrowed. No other EU country has done this. Infact this was outright shocking to everyone else when it finally came out.
What allowed Greece to borrow to much was that it effectively had the same credit rating as Germany via the Euro, and went on a spending binge. Hello Olympics?. Germany's sin in all this, is being a chief architect of the EU, and pushing it's hard money values.
Lastly, Germany is an export juggernaut and was the largest exporter in the world, above us, and China too until only last year. Greece is a small fraction of it's export base, and although there is a well developed argument about the dysfunction of the German/S. European trade balance, the notion that German policy is driven by the desire to keep selling to economic midgets like Greece is to miss the core issues at stake.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
European Leaders Agree to New Budget Discipline Measures
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Germany was dubbed the 'sick man of Europe' as recently as 2003 but its stunning growth since 2006 is the envy of all. Frau Merkel's doses of austeriy measures coupled with the Teutonic work ethic and values - thoroughness, frugality, diligence - helped Germany out of the crisis. She will soon realise that she will not be able to enforce the same budget discipline in other Eurozone countries.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
European Leaders Agree to New Budget Discipline Measures
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If 27 members of a club (in this case the EU) agree to something and one member doesn't, clearly the 26 should be permitted to carry on with their decision unhindered. Except if you believe that all 26 are lunatics while the single objector is the only sane person...which, to be honest, is unlikely in this case.
Fact is, the EU doesn't only need new rules, but it needs improved means to enforce these rules, otherwise they will be as toothless as the old Maastricht-criteria. This is also in Britains interest economically.
Politically, if Britain doesn't want to be part of any of this, it should just leave the EU instead of blocking measures the others do agree on. This would best be done via a referendum about EU membership. In case the referendum results in favour of continued EU membership, the UK should finally fully embrace the EU and help in improving it constructively. If the referendum results in favour of leaving the EU, the UK can enact any policies it sees fit, but will be rendered almost completely helpless if anything the EU decides affects it negatively...which it will, because EU membership or not, Britain is economically highly intertwined with continental Europe.
Read the article GUARDIAN/David Cameron faces clash with Conservative Eurosceptics
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Cameron is right. Of-course it makes sense to have policy enforced by a court.
But what really gets my goat is that so-called Europe-skeptics pretend that they are pushing the better interests of the UK, but clearly this is not always so.
For example: this week my business has received a letter from our merchant bank Barclays plc telling me that I will now be charged an additional 0.03 p per electronic payment received from credit and debit cards. Doesn't sound much but for every £1,000,000 we generate in hard cash (from exports) brought into England (on-top of all the other bank charges and fees, not to mention taxes and the like) we will now hand over to the banks an additional £30000 or so to a bank.
This little money earner which is to be rolled out across the UK will put millions of pounds into the coffers of the banks, with little or no extra input from them and for those operating from tax-havens not extra UK tax burden.
The anti-Europe boys say Tobin is bad because if "we" do it and the USA does not then "we" will be unfairly penalised - and yet the banks (always with a keen eye on a money earner) have introduced it to their own exclusive benefit. Another example of the anti-Europe brigade being used to full advantage by the banks and through their influence, our main-stream politicians being out-flanked and weakened.
Now, some will ask - why not change banks? Because they are all doing this in concert. The banks right across Europe have us over a barrel. And that is a real problem for businesses in the UK, which will only be addressed by tough action on a pan-Europe scale.
Read the article GUARDIAN/David Cameron faces clash with Conservative Eurosceptics
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The good news is that the fiscal union treaty is finally a reality.
Only strict financial rules will keep the Euro stable and stop leftists borrowing and spending nations into bankruptcy.
The Czech Republic currently says no to the new order sweeping Europe. Fair enough, they are scheduled to join the Euro at a later date so that is no problem.
The UK remains outside the Euro but we will be subject to the views of the other 26 members.
All in all a good day for Europe. No, make that an excellent day.
Read the article GUARDIAN/David Cameron faces clash with Conservative Eurosceptics
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This is a sticking plaster over a flaw of a single currency with neither single
government nor a single people. Could one of the BBC economists explain what
replaces the safety valve of floating currencies within the eurozone? Without
floating currencies the euro becomes artificially weak in a strong German
economy, cripplingly strong in a weak Greek economy, entrenching both. Debt is a
symptom.
Read the article BBC NEWS/EU summit: UK and Czechs refuse to join fiscal compact
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No populace of any European Union or eurozone country ever voted Yes to handing
complete control of their country's finances to the European Court of Justice,
but that is now what they've got. They will have no say in the matter, there
will be no referendums. Lobbying their own governments will do nothing because
individual governments will have no option but to bow to their EU masters
Read the article BBC NEWS/EU summit: UK and Czechs refuse to join fiscal compact
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Those who think that Cameron has made a bad call, not agreeing when 25 others
have, I ask this - do you really think all that agreed to this compact actually
wanted to? That they thought it a good idea?
No many of the Eurozone
countries agreed this because they had to! They had no choice, they need
assistance and this is the price.
I rather think some would quietly like be
''isolated' right now.
Read the article BBC NEWS/EU summit: UK and Czechs refuse to join fiscal compact
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All these measures in support of Greece are little more than kicking a big nasty
can down the road a few more yards. None of them solve the undelying problem -
the greek economy is not growing, austerity will not help it grow, borrowing is
too expensive to priovide a kenysian stimulus (and the size needed alone would
drain the eonomy for generations to come), and the greek people are both fed up
with the pain and still immune to their own respopnsiblity to pay their taxes.
So, sure, kick the can down the road abit longer but if the sky is looking a bit
darker than usual in Greece, its the chickens coming home to roost. The sound of
can-kicking will delay them only so much longer. They will eventually land and
the bill eventually will be paid - even though it keeps getting bigger.
And keep you schadenfruede to yourself - don't think that something
similar won't happen in the U.S. Nobody - and I mean NOBODY has any plans to
repair the damage here that involves more than "a wing and a prayer." China owns
the wing and the too-big-too-fail-banks own the prayer (and the polticians from
both parties: heads they win, tails you lose)
Read the article WALL STREET JOURNAL/Europe Tightens Fiscal Ties
*"Our national interest is that these countries get on and sort out the mess that is the euro." - David Cameron, Prime Miniiter
"Good Job!" - Navy Seals Daring Rescue of Aid Workers in Somalia
Jessica Buchanan and Poul Hogan, Photos: Danish Refugee Council
This is what American military troops are best at not wholesale conventional warfare where they end up getting slaughtered for nothing - other than the war profiteers that own Congress and their irrepressible money machine. Credit where credit is due - Good Job and may they continue to infiltrate and devastate as many terrorists, pirates, and other depraved killers, anywhere on the plant.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
U.S. Military Frees 2 Western Hostages From Somali Pirates
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These "morons" were not rich eco-tourists vacationing in Africa on a lark. They were working for a non-profit organization that clears landmines left by decades of war, so that the civilians stuck living there can walk the roads and plow the land without getting blown to bits. There are people like them all over the globe -- working for Doctors Without Borders, Red Cross, Unicef -- doing the dangerous work no one else wants to do. Instead of mocking them, we should be grateful they are willing to take the risks. I think they are worth saving.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
U.S. Military Frees 2 Western Hostages From Somali Pirates
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Surgical.Smart. Secret. If we have to do things like this, this is how it should be done.
No swagger and bluster, just get it done and get out.
Well done to the men and women who helped plan and execute this mission.
Read the article NPR/In Daring Raid, Navy SEALs Free 2 Aid Workers From Somali Pirates
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The last time our President gave orders for a 'raid' was the night that he spoke at a Reporter's Dinner and made fun of himself. One of the quotes that I remember was while he spoke to Donald Trump about the fact that (paraphrasing) 'trying to determine who should be fired - and why - was something that would keep him up at night.'
The very next morning the President stood in front of the Nation and announced that 'Osama Bin Laden was dead'.
We now find out that, last night, he had further news that within the preceding 24 hours out 'special forces' had undertaken another task - and completed it successfully.
The fact that the President BEGAN his speech by honoring the military - and ended it by describing how everyone in this country, this Administration, this Congress could take a great lesson from the way our men and women (of every stripe and political beliefs) in our military can work TOGETHER to get the job of rebuidling the American Dream done - while never leaving anyone behind.
No one can even suggest that this President can't 'multi-task'. =^.,.^=
Read the article HUFFINGTON POST/Raid In Somalia: U.S. Military Frees Hostages Held Since October
President Barack Obama informs John Buchanan that his daughter Jessica
was rescued by U.S. Special Operations Forces in Somalia, Jan. 24, 2012
. First Lady Michelle Obama stands behind the President.
(Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
Listen folks, let’s stop with the constant whining and see this for what it is. Our brave men and women serving our country put their lives on the line every day so that even the most nitwitted among us can enjoy the freedom they have even posting derogatory BS. This Navy Seal team doesn’t pick the politics behind their mission. They go out and take care of business like true professionals, true heros, and true Americans, something many among us fail to see because of their political poison. This mission wasn’t planned according to the politics of the day, who said what, and who gets the credit. They truly should be the model for all of us of what true America are all about. I am extremely proud of them. Their courage, their precision, and the results cannot be argued or questioned. And for those that inject their ugly political poison, understand this if nothing else…regardless of who our President may be, he is the Commander In Chief of our armed services, he is the one that makes that final decision that puts these fine men and women in peril and in the line of fire. It is not a decision made
Read the article ABC NEWS/Navy SEALs Rescue Two Aid Workers in Somalia in Daring Raid
Costa Concordia: A Great Ship Goes to Its Doom
Collision of "Costa Concordia" -- Photo: Roberto Vongher/Wikipedia
As a professional mariner, I would caution anyone from jumping to conclusions about who is to blame here until all the facts are known. When this is over, you may find that the captain saved many lives by intentionally putting this ship into the shallows to prevent sinking and the resultant MUCH GREATER loss of life. There are so many possible scenarios, it is foolish to start the blame game and any comparison to the Titanic is just ridiculous
Read the article CNN/Like a scene out of the film 'Titanic,' chaos consumed listing ship
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A number of experts are saying that the reason for the current location of the
ship close to shore is that having hit an underwater obstacle and taking on
water, the captain and senior crew deliberately attempted to get the ship as
close into shore as possible and to beach the ship. Unfortunately the nature of
the coast is steep on this part of Tuscany, rather than flat in the shallows,
which is why the ship is currently on its side, the opposite side to where the
hull gash is, but as the experts have said, the crew didn't have the luxury to
look for somewhere else. It is quite possible that an electrical failure occured
at the most inopportune of moments where the backup systems do not kick in
instantaneously. It is common in Italy for someone to be initially held on the
highest possible charge that might be levelled against them .... it doesn't mean
that they will be charged.
Read the article DAILY MAIL/'Forget women and children first, it was every man for himself':
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I worked on cruise ships for over 10 years back in the 80's. I was on "The SS
Norway, the then largest in the world when it caught fire off Miami and we had
to abandon ship. I was on 2 other ships that had small fires and we had to go to
muster stations. A friend of mine was on a liner that abandoned ship off Alaska,
fire again. The common cause of ships running aground, is loss of power, which
leaves any ship completely helpless, at the mercy of the sea, going aground
whilst under power is very unusual.
As far as crew training goes, crew lifeboat
drill takes place once a week. Every crew member (including dancers) has a
specific duty, should know how to launch a life boat and in the case of
capsizing, how to launch the smaller, life rafts. A crew member is responsible
for checking each cabin in emergency. In Miami for example The US Coast Guard
inspects ships every 3 months, including randomly testing the abilities of crew
members. As for this ship, saving fuel is my guess.
Read the article DAILY MAIL/'Forget women and children first, it was every man for himself':
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In my opinion, these gigantic passenger liners are not safe. Apparently they have scrimped on safety. There was an incident a couple of years ago in which one of these liners lost electricity and the passengers had to spend days without hot food, lights or flush toilets. As an engineer, I was appalled by what I read. Apparently they had only one engine, which is incredible for a ship that size, and the crankcase cracked and the oil leaked out causing the engine to seize. They had no emergency generators and no emergency lights, which again is incredible.
As to the present incident, that a ship that size should run aground with all the modern navigation aids available, radar, sonar, GPS, depth finder, satnav, and on and on, seems to reflect a degree of negligence and incompetence which is beyond belief, in my opinion. That the ship should actually capsize I find incomprehensible. Was there no water tight compartmentalization, no pumps, no counterflooding, no damage control? These ships are very impressive for their size, but fatally flawed, in my opinion
Read the article CNN/Like a scene out of the film 'Titanic,' chaos consumed listing ship
Collision of "Costa Concordia" -- Photo: Roberto Vongher/Wikipedia
Always chaos in situations like this, irrespective of training, always something that doesn't work. Status Quo. The fact that the death toll is so low says it worked very well anyway, the permanent crew did their duty. Certainly for the first time, for real. Hats off to the Captain for instantly reacting and running his ship aground, he saved many lives by doing this. I've repaired ships - did work on the Winston Churchill - and that gash is horrific, lot of force went into that. They hit very solid and sharp rock, the ship moved but the rock didn't budge.
I read the Captain told of electrical failure, might I guess the bottom-reading radar wasn't functioning, the SatNav perhaps, and they inadvertently sailed too tight to the side of the channel? Also: what were the tides like, the moon? Perhaps it was low water. The Med is a dangerous place to navigate, always has been. Today's ships use thick crude oil that needs to be steam-heated before use, so pollution will be contained.
Read the article SKY NEWS/Captain Held After Cruise Ship Capsizes
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It is actually lucky they have managed to literally beach it because all the lifeboats become redundant after anything much more than a 15 degree list and then you have to rely on rope ladders and liferafts, none of which appear to have been deployed properly as they should be all tied together once dispatched into the water and people are on board, guess most were somehow moved to other boats, it will be intersting to see more detail. The one pic of damage to hull is bit worrying as it appears from what you can see that the ship went side on into a reef, if it had gone forwards into the reef the damage would be along the length of hull from front but this is not the case and the stabalizers are intact. I hope this was not anything else.
Read the article SKY NEWS/Captain Held After Cruise Ship Capsizes
An "Utterly Deplorable" Battlefield Video Goes Viral
I am a veteran, come from a long line of military, have family members actively serving -- some in the Middle East. I was expecting some comments in support of this vile behavior, but I am shocked at the number of people defending these soldiers. "But what about the beheadings" they say--well I'll tell you about them, they are on the same spectrum of indecency, immorality and disrespect as this disgusting behavior.
Blind nationalists spout, "we support our troops no matter what!" Like that is to be admired and Americans can do no wrong. Ignorance and stupidity is what that is--same as with the pics out of Abu Ghraib a few years ago--when we bring ourselves to the same level as our "enemy" we are no better than they are. And guess what, we are not better than they are. I do not want my country's troops performing acts like these in my name.
Bottom line, at the risk of being cliche, "two wrongs still don't make a right" and only morons and those with a low moral compass believe that they do. These soldiers should be punished, it is absolutely shameful and doesn't reflect decent human codes of behavior during peace or war time
Read the article CNN/Shock, outrage over Marine urination video
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Soldiers desecrating bodies is nothing new... war dehumanizes everyone. What is troublesome is that they chose to make a video of this and then allowed that video to get into the hands of tabloid news outlets? That requires a mind-bending level of stupidity.
Read the article LOS ANGELES TIMES/Karzai condemns video showing men in uniform urinating on bodies
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All the talk about things *they* did and how that justifies our military's actions - even if the act was only pantomine and not actual urination - misses the point completely.
Our military is trying to win public opinion in Afghanistan, and convince its citizens to reject the Taliban and trust our people. If you want to make a convincing point of your moral superiority, desecrating the dead - no matter who they were while alive - is NOT going to work.
Our military members are mostly professional, intelligent and have the self control to not act like brutes. Episodes like this one can wipe out many good efforts while we try to win the war in Afghanistan, and so it should be dealt with publicly and severely. Those who think it's okay to urinate on people should form a club and do so on each other. We expect more out of our military, even if we can't expect more out of you.
Read the article USA TODAY/Panetta: Urination video 'utterly deplorable'
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Have been in the Military for 30 years currently and will be leaving on deployment again in the next month or so, What these Marines did was wrong.. No doubt about it. I still think that the media (TV, Newspaper, Radio, nternet) has done more damage over the years than any group of knotheads have done. It is a travesty and they should be punished. It isn't ethically or morally right. But, does it help to have the media who only shows the bad and never the good continously show it on every channel and website over and over.. I understand they have the freedom of speech, but they are almost directly responsible for the way the US Military is perceived in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Read the article USA TODAY/Panetta: Urination video 'utterly deplorable'
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We teach these young men to kill, to do it automatically and on command and the thing they are to kill without a moments hesitation is another human being. The problem here is that before we teach them this, they were living in a country very unlike the Taliban run society where hangings and beheadings are as common place as buying ice cream in summer here. So just how does the U.S. Military get around this problem?
It is simple really. Before I was sent off to be an infantry 'grunt' in the Vietnam War we were schooled in calling the enemy 'Dinks', or 'Slopes' or 'Charlie', and each was generally used in conjunction with the F word or some similar slur. Once you get, " In Country " and you see a few friends corpses, courtesy of 'F'in Charlie', the rest is downhill. We used to tie the bodies together and drag them in a chain behind an APC (armoured Personnel Carrier). I had a CO who threw one across the hood of the Jeep and drove up & down main street in the Vietnamese Village, like a deer across the hood of your car back home during hunting season.
So let's not blame these Marines for treating the things they kill like anything of value, contempt makes butchering them so very much more sensible, and certainly less traumatic to ones respect for human life. After all we don't send in the Marines to do sensitivity training, we send them in to kill, mercilessly.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Outrage Over Video of Marines Urinating on Taliban Corpses
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As a former Marine, I have to say that I am appalled. This is NOT part of the core values that is instilled in Marines. It disrespects those who have served honorably and have tried to uphold those values. War is hell, no doubt, but we are supposed to be better than that. Just because it is war, doesn't mean we have carte blanche.
It is a sad day for our beloved Corps. This stunt only serves to invite retaliation against US troops and coalition forces and further damages an already fragile image of American troops.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Outrage Over Video of Marines Urinating on Taliban Corpses
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Those who make excuses for this behavior are confused. They are part of the problem. Not only is this kind of thing dishonorable and repugnant and undisciplined, it undermines our military goals. There should be zero tolerance for troops who have these tendencies. Our military is and needs to be better than this, and I have full confidence that military leaders will meet the problem head on and do more than just discipline the few who are caught in the act. We can't afford to deploy soldiers overseas who have the potential to carelessly damage our goals and national security.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Outrage Over Video of Marines Urinating on Taliban Corpses
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Iran's Saber Rattling Over the Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz is an international waterway with well established right of passage that something like 30% of the worlds oil supply goes through... as such it is critical to the entire worlds economy.... yes even Norway and the UK
Iran has been saber rattling for 30 years that they will block it with military action every time something happens in the world against them.
As always the US policy has been to say: we support the well established international right of passage in the Hormuz and will not tolerate attacks on international shipping in the Hormuz.
And as always Iran will have to make the step of military action or else nothing will happen.
The US is not starting a fight, and this does not have a parallel to any recent historical events in the region.
Those supporting Iran's view here are fundamentally saying that Iran has the right to hurt the entire worlds economy in retaliation for UN sanctions against their nuclear weapon program which the UN says exists, not the US.
Iran doesn't get a green light to create and deploy and distribute nuclear weapons and close the Straight of Hormuz simply because Iraq happened....
The next time a US warship transits the straight.... It's Iran's move....
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
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It's not a matter of the US being "stupid enough" to attack Iran. It's the possibility that the Iranians are stupid enough or desperate enough to attack the US Navy, and in the past the Iranians have not shown the best of sense. Their desire for nuclear weapons poses a greater threat to their people than any advantage it could afford them, and the costs to their economy and their people for their current efforts in that area have been enormous.
Personally I hope they attack. This will put an end to their nuclear program and most likely their current corrupt and repressive government. The US would face minimal losses as all that would be needed would be air and naval power.
As for the "absurd US overreaction over the Twin Towers attack" you might feel a bit differently if you were here at the time and lost people. That attack was an act of war, and those that supported and harbored Al Qaeda, the Taliban government in Afghanistan, deserved what they got. As for Iraq, that had nothing to do with 9/11 and Bush merely used 9/11 as an excuse for a stupid and unnecessary war.
It's very easy to be critical of the US, but the fact is that the citizens of the US have provided the security umbrella for Europe for 60 years at great cost in our blood and treasure.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
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Iran's statements show the weakness of the regime in Iran. Starting a war with the United States may be seen in Iran as a way to shore up the regime. However the military reality would be devastation to Iranian forces within hundreds of miles of the Strait of Hormuz. The US Air Force would have no choice but to destroy all fixed positions, and any military target that moves, on the ground within range of the Strait.
There is no doubt the United States has the weapons to remove all threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is not equipped to defend itself.
The US Navy considers freedom of navigation in international waters to be essential to its mission and essential to freedom of the seas. The threat Iran is making is a direct challenge to freedom of navigation, thus placing the regime in Tehran in jeopardy.
If Iran attacks an American aircraft carrier then Iran will lose its air force and its navy within hours of the attack. Terrorist attacks in other countries will not save Iranian forces on the ground. The ensuing naval blockade will cut off oil revenue to Tehran. Economic chaos, and military defeat, will end the regime.
The fact that Iran cannot hold any fixed position on the ground is decisive and means that war with the United States is a no-win situation. The military in Tehran must re-think its miscalculation. Iran cannot defend itself against strategic forces from the United States, and for that reason, Iran cannot start a war.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
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This seems poorly thought out for the U.S. to impose further sanctions on Iran. I hope this isn't another case of 'mushroom clouds' rhetoric. As noted in the article, if 1/5 of all the oil traded world wide is passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and that vital trading route could be seriously disrupted or closed, it would mean significant jumps in the price of oil world wide.
After the debacle of Iraq, and trillions of dollars spent on twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the old adage 'look before you leap' comes to mind.
Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/
Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) transits the
Straits of Hormuz. John C. Stennis is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of
responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class
Kenneth Abbate)
Iran's recent sabre-rattling and strident statements are increasingly reminiscent of another country's conduct, that of North Korea. North Korea has had some success in gaining concessions (mainly foreign aid) from other countries on the back of seemingly dangerous irrational behavior. Iran's leaders seem to believe that they need to emulate this model of 'paranoid dictatorship'.
The goals of such behavior by Iran and North Korea are obvious:
1. try to blackmail the international community into lifting or at least softening sanctions, and 2., create international tension so as to divert domestic attention from domestic problems.
The response of the international community should be to impose the planned sanctions and ignore Iran's military threats (ie. no military engagement with Iran for now). Such a course of action would best facilitate the most preferred long-term solution, namely, the one wherein the people of Iran take matters into their own hands and put Iran back on the right track.
Read the article ALJAZEERA/Is Iran still defiant?
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Isn’t Iran doing exactly what US, Israel and other big nations are doing? Increased security threats from outside make all armies in the world eager to conduct exercises and ready themselves ... US even conducts large scale exercises on foreign land (afgh, pak, iraq). Let’s be glad Iran hasn’t decided to do the same yet. As we know they are entitled to do exactly what the US and Israel does, since these are the ones criticizing Iran.
The only problem for Europe is Iran’s reluctance to work closely with the IAEA, which is a pity. Iran and EU should create better ties with each other, without the involvement of Israel and US.
The more tense a situation gets, the more room for mistakes that could trigger major/minor conflicts...which is exactly what is going on now..
Read the article ALJAZEERA/Is Iran still defiant?
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Let us hope that this is just more nationalistic nonsense from the discredited leadership of Iran and not a serious attempt to take controll of the region now that Saddam no longer threatens their borders. I sincerely doubt that China would be happy with Iran if they destablized the region. China and Russia are in a much better position to deal with this mess in the diplomatic field, then we are militarily. Quite frankly, we can't afford another war.
Read the article DAILY BEAST/Iran Warns U.S. Carrier to Stay Away
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I think we need to send the Stennis back into the area just to make the point that we do not care what they have to say and that the Iranians do not tell the US what to do. Also, it would call their bluff and expose to the Iranian people what a bunch of saber rattling morons they have for leadership. There is no way that the Iranians are stupid enough to attack a US aircraft carrier sailing in international waters. If they ever did the Iranians would need glass bottom boats to see the remains of their navy resting on the bottom of the ocean.
As for those who think that the Iranians could shut down the Straights of Hormuz by seeding the areas with mines all I have to say is you have got to be kidding. At their first attempt to deploy the first mine the US, with backing from NATO and the UN, would destroy every mine laying asset the Iranians have. There is no way that our government would allow the Iranians to disrupt the flow of vessel traffic through an international waterway. The few mines that they might be able to deploy before we put a stop to it could be quickly cleared by the minesweepers that the 5th fleet has in the area. The US maintains a fairly robust mine sweeping capability in the region for just his purpose because the Straights of Hormuz is such a choke point.
Those who think that the US was provoking the Iranians by sending the Stennis into the area are ill informed at best. The Stennis transited through the area in international waters after departing from a port visit in the gulf. This ship movement had been planned long before the Iranians started or even made public their plans for their exercises in the area. There was absolutely no intentional provocation involved with the ship being in the area. It did not loiter in the exercise area at all and simply made a routine transit through an international shipping lane.
Read the article .MSNBC/Iran warns US carrier to stay out of Persian Gulf
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Lot's of polarized thinking here. Either invade Iran at the expense of bazzilions, oh, and probably lose because we are so incompetent, OR run and hide and allow a corrupt regime to shut down 40% of the world's oil upon which most countries depend. The justification for the latter seems to be that we have at times failed in our foreign policy, so we therefore have no credibility at all ever concerning anything, and that a swift retreat from maintaining freedom of navigation in international waters around the world will somehow help our economy (how the huge spike in oil prices and shipping insurance would be overcome by this move I don't understand, but whatever...there isn't much logic there to make it worth stewing on).
Now here is what is most likely to be happening, and therefore most likely to happen in the near future. Iran is becoming increasingly isolated. The banking sanctions are serious, and if the Europeans follow suit, which is actually likely this time, they will finally be suffering to a significant extent for their dangerous actions. The Europeans have a lot at stake in all this, and frankly are more vulnerable than we are to a massive disruption in the Gulf.
Iran also has a tremendous domestic problem. The masses aren't too pleased with how things are going. These people are not apes. They are highly literate, connected with the outside world via technology, and many of them lived under a different (albeit also corrupt) regime in their lifetime. They have seen first hand the failings (often brutal) of the theocracy they put in place.
In the future? Iran continues to saber rattle as their situation gets more desperate. Instilling fear in their people of foreign intervention is a winning proposition for them in the short term. Nationalism is a powerful force. That is why we are down playing their threats (no bellicose responses, etc.) In response to the latest sanctions, they are already asking to go back to negotiations over their nuclear program. Suspect they haven't suffered enough pain to get serious in those yet...pretending to be negotiating while stalling for more development time is one of their favorite tricks. But there is time left. Building a nuke is one thing, developing a serious means to deliver it effectively is another. And again, their domestic time bomb will just keep on ticking.
Finally, if it does come down to military action, I believe we have, for at least this generation, cured ourselves of the naivete that led some of our leaders to believe you can nation build a free country where there was none before as an outsider. It doesn't happen that way - at best, you can support freedom movements within an existing nation, and even those tend to fail. If Iran moves to close the strait, we'd make short work of them...one thing about where we are today versus pre-911 is we actually do have the stomach as a nation to pound the crap out of those we find deserving. Bomb Libya? Yeah, sure, never liked those guys, why not... Carefully targeted strikes on their port facilities, communications, Air Force, intelligence centers, missile forces and every boat using more than paddles could be accomplished fairly quickly. These would prove highly embarrassing to the regime and would belie the assertions of their leaders regarding their strength and international support (we did this in a smaller, and quieter way in the late eighties in response to their games in the Gulf, and haven't had another problem there since).
However, no damn invasion! If the Iranian leaders manage to remain in power after this debacle, then so be it - let the Iranian people work it out. The leadership would still have been humiliated, and their militarily capability severely reduced. They also would have been put on notice that our response to their threats is real, and could happen again and again should they keep up the shenanigans. Obviously we would be working to turn some of their military leaders...but who knows how that would go. The most difficult challenge would be standing by during a brutal crackdown on dissidents, but ultimately for the Iranians, sorry, you picked these guys...you deal with them. The good news is that any result is still Iranian owned. Provoke and pay a terrible price. If the regime turns, it's an Iranian built replacement. We stand by to engage and support the new leadership if, and where we can.
Read the article .MSNBC/Iran warns US carrier to stay out of Persian Gulf
