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BUSINESS ARCHIVES — JUNE 2010 [RETURN TO commentopia HOME PAGE]
JUNE 21, 2010 -- JUNE 27, 2010
I hope Europe finds a way to stabilize things. America is in a real recovery mode (albeit slow) with the federal stimulus actions working (better in some places than others, but still a net positive effect). A recession in Europe due to a Euro collapse could easily cause a double dip recession in the U.S. which we we’re pretty sure was not going to occur the way things have been improving. Soros has bet against the Euro before, so who knows what his motives are? Read the article REUTERS/Soros says Germany could cause Euro collapse <> I’m a career currency trader and what Soros is saying has merit. Most in my profession do not believe the Euro will exist in 15 years. Read the article REUTERS/Soros says Germany could cause Euro collapse <> Fear of loss is the largest motivating factor for all. We always believe the bad news and are skeptical of good news. Therefore, these “guru’s” betting against good times make their fortunes larger promoting the fear factor. Investing used to be for prosperity, firms to grow. Now the big winners bet against growth and have the stage to help facilitate their mission. Something is very wrong here. Read the article REUTERS/Soros says Germany could cause Euro collapse PAUL KRUGMAN ON DEFICIT HAWKS AND DANGER OF A SLUMP
I'm not an economist, but I learned about the Depression and how it stalled out in 1937 when I was in high school - way back in the 1970's. We learned then what Prof. Krugman is saying here today, that is, balancing the budget in the middle of a time of high unemployment makes things worse. This was once common knowledge. Wha' happened? Are people today stupider than they were in the '70's? Or maybe their education has changed? Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/Paul Krugman:That 30's Feeling <> Here in Flint, Michigan, unemployment is probably close to 25% (if not higher). Crime is rising. The local economy is collapsing. "Hawks" in local municipalities, whose state share of revenue and tax revenues have fallen, have gouged services much more deeply than the revenue fall. (Think of an already under-served urban area with trash pick up every OTHER week and one cop per 2,000 residents.) Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/That 30's Feeling <> Oh dear. Krugman may be a good economist (if such a thing exists) but he is certianly not a historian. Read the article NEW YORK TIMES/That 30's Feeling WORLD CUP BROUHAHA OVER DUTCH BEER BABES
Brilliant marketing, thanks to the FIFA fuss and the newspapers...not a logo in sight, but more publicity than they could have imagined! Read the article DAILY MAIL/ITV axes Robbie Earle as two 'orange mini-dress women' arrested <> "The group had prime seats and drew attention to themselves by cheering and shouting at the match in Johannesburg." Gosh, I'd better be careful next time I'm at a match! I normally cheer and shout and I could have sworn everybody else does too, but apparently that's drawing attention to myself. Wouldn't want that. I shall sit on my hands with my mouth tightly gagged next time.... Read the article DAILY MAIL/ITV axes Robbie Earle as two 'orange mini-dress women' arrested <> They keep repeating their claim of "ambush marketing" as if they think if they repeat it enough its going to stick, but I didn't have a clue what the dress meant, and neither would anyone but the Dutch, so in the end this has affected NOTHING in South Africa. There is no South African victim here, so why should South African courts try this case? And honestly look at the picture, I can see a small indistinct tag on the dress, but there's no way I can make it out. If I arrived dressed in Red and White would FIFA claim ambush marketing on the part of Coca Cola? Because that's precisely the colour almost all the English are wearing. Yellow is the Dutch colour and it is PRECISELY the same. I think that FIFA has bitten off way more than it can chew here, although I expect that 2 days after the soccer world cup is over the entire issue will evaporate. Read the article IOL NEWS/Dutch ministry gives Fifa a dressing down
JUNE 14, 2010 -- JUNE 20, 2010 ARE THE BEST AND BRIGHTEST IMMIGRANTS STAYING HOME?
I worked for an insurance brokerage firm in NY -- Many of our H1-B shining stars were recent college graduates who were shuttled from India on a day's notice from our vendor (in India). These candidates came aboard & we spent..er.. WASTED...many weeks training them because they were not veterans of the tech industry. Read the article MONEY.CNN/The immigrant brain drain <> The "brain drain" is an over-simplified concept. I remember complaints many years ago that we were stealing all the tech brains from India, and would leave India mired in the economic backwaters. The opposite happened of course. Lured by the prospect of great jobs and entrepreneurial growth, a whole generation of Indian professionals were motivated to build some of the most successful companies in the world, jump starting the Indian economy, and helping to pull literally hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In regard to nurses, the majority of international nurses come from one country, the Philippines, which has an express policy of educating and training many times more nurses than it could afford to hire, specifically so they can go abroad to work. It is unfortunate that the developing world is too poor to employ many of its nurses, but true. Read the article MONEY.CNN/The immigrant brain drain <> As someone who was in the position of applying for an H1B visa, I find it laughable that the US people think that letting 65,000 a year foreign skilled workers in the country is damaging. Read the article MONEY.CNN/The immigrant brain drain CHAIRMAN BERNANKE TEMPERS OPTIMISM WITH CAUTION ON DEFICIT
Bernanke may well be right in as much as the US economy can be sustained for another year or so by propping it up with debt. But the long-term solution is just exactly the opposite of what Mr. Bernanke is touting. What we need is a combination of reduced spending, higher taxes and higher interest (sorry!). We’ve got to reign-in the debt, bring the money supply to a reasonable level, raise taxes and reduce spending in order to produce a surplus (over and above the sum of the budget plus interest on debt) and begin paying down our debt. Will stock prices fall? Absolutely. Will 80 year olds have to be denied that $100,000 hip replacement or $300,000 bypass? Yep. The government SETS ridiculous prices on things like healthcare simply by paying the bills – no matter how much it costs. The New Deal kept the US in a depression for over a decade and the US economic policy under Obama is New Deal Deja Vu (even though I wasn’t around in the 1930s). Bush’s tax cuts mirror Coolidge’s policy just prior to the crash of ‘29. Americans sucked it up then because there was no option. I say we suck it up while we can still control bleeding and avoid the same optionless future our grandparents endured. Read the article REUTERS/Ben Bernanke's testimony to House Budget Committee
<> Chairman Bernanke is smiling, and tiptoeing around the question, because he knows the jig is up. Our country has been here before, with similar results. And this time, it could be much, much worse. A quote: “We have tried spending money. We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong . . . somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job, I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. . . . We have said we would give everybody a job that wanted it. We have never taken care of the people . . . . there are four million that don’t have that much income. We have never done anything for them . . . "We have never begun to tax the people in this country the way they should be . . . . People who have it should pay. . . . It’s never a good year to have a tax bill, but I think it’s a darn good year to begin to balance the budget. . . . the biggest deterrent of all . . . is that the country does not know when the end is in sight and this unbalancing of the budget . . . that’s what frightens people. I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started . . . . And an enormous debt to boot!” ~Henry Morgenthau, Jr., May 1939 Read the article BREITBART/Bernanke: "Nothing on the table at this point" to tackle fiscal crisis JUNE 7, 2010 -- JUNE 13, 2010 AS GOOD AS GOLD ... AT $1250 AN OUNCE
It is irrational exuberance that is as good as - gold. Read the article WALL STREET JOURNAL/Gold settles at record <> The gold price is being driven up by speculator's, just like the price of oil was a few years back. Remember when every hotshot was predicting $200/barrel or higher oil? Remember Peak Oil? Remember when oil fell back to under $40/barrel? The same thing can and will happen to gold in the near-term future. Read the article SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE/Nervous investors look to gold as safe haven <> Gold is not in a bubble. It is still barely 50% of its inflation-adjusted high of THIRTY YEARS AGO. Read the article DAILY TELEGRAPH/Gold price hits new record as it breaks through $1250 JOBS, JOBS, JOBS ... BUT NOT IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR, AND NOT FOR LONG
The economy has added about 1 million jobs in the first 5 months of this year, but over 600K of them are temporary census workers. That nets to an average of about 75K "real" jobs added per month, and some of those are government. Most people agree it takes between 100K and 150K per month to keep up with population expansion. It's time to take off the rose-colored glasses and realize that the efforts to date are not working. If the media had any courage or honesty, they would be laughing when this administration crows about job growth. But that is far too much to ask... Read the article WALL STREET JOURNAL/US economy added 431,000 jobs in May, bolstered by Census hiring
<> After one year are the green shoots finally showing economic recovery or there are nothing but weeds? Read the article WALL STREET JOURNAL/US economy added 431,000 jobs in May, bolstered by Census hiring
MAY 31, 2010 -- JUNE 6, 2010 BRITAIN'S BABY BOOMERS AND THE THREAT OF NATIONAL BANKRUPTCY
The fatal flaw in retirement funding is the practice of including all government receipts, however designated, in current spending. In private pension schemes the premiums are invested, they accumulate income and capital gains, and the fund is available on retirement to deliver benefit. Government, having spent the ‘premiums’ during the taxpayer’s lifetime, must fund pensions from current tax receipts. This is one reason why profligate administrations, such as the last Labour government, create so much damage to future generations. Read the article TIMES U.K./This is the age of war between the generations <> David Willetts' book (The Pinch), I think, is mostly right. We boomers have not just been lucky, but have benefited from our demographic power; inflation was high when we were paying off our first mortgages and low when we were saving. We got student grants, not loans. We got interesting jobs in the boom years. Our prime-of-life wealth (houses) got inflated in the asset bubble. Read the article TIMES U.K./This is the age of war between the generations
GOOGLE SHUTTERS WINDOWS AS IT BURNISHES CHROME OS
Windows malware thrives precisely because Windows users tend to (or have been trained/conditioned to) install every piece of software a Web page tries to push at them. Mac and Linux users have a more "If I need it, why isn't it in my regular software repository?" mindset. Most malware gets in through social engineering, and Mac and Linux users are conditioned to be more skeptical about requests to install software. And I suspect part of it's an attempt to undermine Microsoft even more. Google's rather big and popular. Dropping support for Windows internally means that issues with Google's apps and services on Mac and Linux will be an immediate problem for Google employees, issues on Windows (ie. IE) won't be. And since most problems on Windows can be solved by installing Firefox or Opera or Chrome, Windows users will be finding themselves increasingly on the flip side of "Just run Windows and you won't have any problems." for a service they find indispensable. Most people used Windows and IE and MSOffice because everybody they had to interact or work with used them, and Google's nearly big enough to be able to trigger that same sort of network cascade. Read the article BOINGBOING/Google phasing out Windows <> Why is it not surprising that an article over security concerns turns into a spitting match over “Why Mac OSX is better than Windows”, or “Why Linux is better than either of them”? Windows is the dominant OS on all computers, and the sad fact is that most users leave themselves openly exposed to threats by their use, lack of common sense, and lack of precaution. I find the better underlying story to be that Google was hacked, given the precautions that they should have known to take to restrict vulnerability. And forgive my skepticism, but as is customary with Google-ware, I’m reluctant to believe they’ll get a bulletproof OS on the first try. Read the article REUTERS/Google phases out Microsoft Windows use, report <> The Google Chrome OS is a very limited Linux-based operating system. It's geared towards running a browser and web apps, and not much more. <> A company makes a rational decision to move from a notorious bug and virus vector, after getting hit by a several year old root kit that the OS maker didn't bother to patch. The response from the Windows Fanboi; "it must be a PR move to hype their new product!". umm.. in a word, no. or at least, that would not be proportional. Typically the engineers and the sales groups don't work that way. Even more so when the product will be a free download. The move was almost certainly suggested by the engineering side. Google is one of the, if not *the* biggest users of Linux, their search engine runs a variant of Ubuntu, on tens of thousands of servers. They have the internal expertise to support the OS, so why bother with a competitor's product, that has earned its poor security reputation? Read the article COMPUTERWORD/Is Google's Windows ban a way to hype its Chrome OS?
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